亞洲LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格將進(jìn)一步下跌
2019年，全球LNG市場(chǎng)嚴(yán)重依賴歐洲消化過剩供應(yīng)。來自美國和澳大利亞新建項(xiàng)目的LNG產(chǎn)量激增，滿足了亞太地區(qū)LNG需求增長，在無其他銷路的情況下，現(xiàn)貨LNG以折扣價(jià)出售到歐洲碼頭。
伍德麥肯齊研究總監(jiān)羅伯特西姆斯說：“到2020年，歐洲可能還會(huì)遇到這種情況。不過，與2019年不同的是，歐洲天然氣庫存將在今年年初創(chuàng)下歷史新高。因此，歐洲需要更多依賴于靈活供應(yīng)，或與去年相比，電力部門需求增加。兩者都表明2020年的TTF價(jià)格更低，這反過來又表明亞洲的現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格更低。
市場(chǎng)自由化和LNG現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格走低為更多新參與者提供了理由
馬來西亞和泰國終于實(shí)現(xiàn)了市場(chǎng)自由化。
去年，殼牌向馬來西亞進(jìn)口了一批現(xiàn)貨LNG，首次打破了馬來西亞國家石油公司的壟斷地位。隨著第三方的成功進(jìn)入，馬來西亞發(fā)電公司TNB的采購部門TNBF預(yù)計(jì)將在2020年尋找更多的貨物。
在泰國，其電力公司上個(gè)月進(jìn)口了第一批LNG。此前一直被PTT公司壟斷，這也是第三方首次成功進(jìn)入泰國市場(chǎng)。
東北亞對(duì)煤炭的反彈可能為短期LNG需求提供利好
日益增長的空氣質(zhì)量問題促使韓國等東北亞市場(chǎng)采取能源政策，減少今年冬天的煤炭發(fā)電量。
首席分析師Lucy Cullen說：“去年春天的減排顯示了韓國在減少季節(jié)性排放方面取得了一些成功。早期報(bào)告也顯示，12月份的排放水平有所下降。如果今年冬季的削減繼續(xù)產(chǎn)生積極影響，那么季節(jié)性的煤炭削減很可能在東北亞定期出現(xiàn)，這對(duì)LNG需求是利好消息。
“目前，東北亞能源市場(chǎng)的性質(zhì)不利于煤改氣的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。但我們將在未來幾個(gè)月密切關(guān)注，看看排放擔(dān)憂和持續(xù)低價(jià)的結(jié)合是否為2020更大范圍的轉(zhuǎn)換提供了必要的動(dòng)力。”
支持天然氣的政策宣布可能動(dòng)搖東南亞天然氣市場(chǎng)
2020年將出臺(tái)幾項(xiàng)政策文件，這些文件有可能撼動(dòng)?xùn)|南亞的天然氣市場(chǎng)。預(yù)計(jì)天然氣的作用將在泰國和越南電力和天然氣市場(chǎng)總體計(jì)劃的啟動(dòng)中更加突出。這將為該地區(qū)的市場(chǎng)參與者提供關(guān)鍵的戰(zhàn)略信號(hào)。越南將在中期新增主要天然氣發(fā)電能力，這將鞏固天然氣在越南電力結(jié)構(gòu)中的作用。預(yù)計(jì)到2020年，許多綜合LNG發(fā)電項(xiàng)目將取得進(jìn)展，爭(zhēng)取在即將出臺(tái)的電力發(fā)展計(jì)劃中占據(jù)一席之地。
印度加氣站進(jìn)展緩慢
印度額外的加氣能力對(duì)于其利用低現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格至關(guān)重要。然而，由于難以實(shí)現(xiàn)與電網(wǎng)管道連接，印度的加氣站發(fā)展緩慢。
賈麗 摘譯自 烴工程在線
原文如下：
Asia Pacific gas and LNG themes to watch
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020.
Asian LNG spot prices to fall further
In 2019, the global LNG market relied heavily on Europe to absorb excess supply. Surging new LNG production from US and Australian projects met stuttering Asia Pacific LNG demand growth and, with no place else to go, spot LNG was sold at a discount into European terminals.
Wood Mackenzie Research Director Robert Sims said: “In 2020, Europe will again be called upon to save the day. However, unlike 2019, European gas inventory will start the year at record high levels. Europe will thus need to rely even more on flexible supply, or increased demand creation from within the power sector, compared to last year. Both indicate an even lower TTF price for 2020 which in turn suggests lower spot price in Asia.
Market liberalisation and low LNG spot prices make the case for more new players
Market liberalisation finally took place in Malaysia and Thailand.
Last year, Shell imported a spot LNG cargo into Malaysia, breaking Petronas’ monopoly for the first time. With third-party access now successfully tested, the purchasing arm of Malaysia’s power generation company TNB, TNBF, is expected to look for additional cargoes in 2020.
Next door in Thailand, EGAT imported its first LNG cargo last month. This was the first test of the country’s third-party access regulation, after previously being monopolised by PTT.
Northeast Asia’s backlash against coal could provide upside to short-term LNG demand
Mounting air quality concerns have prompted Northeast Asian markets such as South Korea to adopt energy policies that reduce coal power generation this winter.
Principal Analyst Lucy Cullen said: “Last spring’s curtailment showed some success in cutting Korean seasonal emissions and early reports also suggest a fall in December emissions levels. If this winter’s curtailments continue to have positive impact and blackouts are avoided, then seasonal coal curtailments are likely to feature regularly in Northeast Asia; to the benefit of LNG.
Pro-gas policy announcements could shake up Southeast Asia’s gas markets
2020 will see the release of several policy documents that have potential to shake up gas markets in Southeast Asia. The role of gas is expected to feature more prominently in the launch of key master plans for the power and gas markets in Thailand and Vietnam. This will provide critical strategic signals for market participants in the region. Vietnam will add major new gas-fired capacity in the medium term, which will cement the role of gas in Vietnam's power mix. Progress is expected in 2020 on the many integrated LNG-to-power projects vying for a place in the upcoming Power Development Plan.
Limited progress in India’s regas terminals
Additional regas capacity will be critical to enable India to take advantage of low spot prices. However, regas developments in India have a history of delay, mainly caused by difficulties in completing pipeline connections to the grid .
